Who Will Be the Next NBA 1st Pick? Expert Predictions and Analysis

It came on Monday, the announcement that always sends ripples through the basketball world—the official lottery order for the NBA Draft. As someone who has followed this process for over a decade, I can tell you that this moment sets the stage for months of speculation, analysis, and heated debates. This year, the buzz is louder than ever. The question on everyone’s mind is clear: who will be the number one pick? I’ve spent years studying prospects, talking to scouts, and even sitting in on pre-draft workouts, and if there’s one thing I’ve learned, it’s that predicting the top pick is equal parts science and intuition. Let’s dive into the leading candidates, the teams in contention, and why this year’s decision feels particularly pivotal.

Right now, if you ask most analysts, they’ll point to Victor Wembanyama as the undeniable frontrunner. At 7-foot-4 with a wingspan of nearly 8 feet, his physical tools are off the charts. I remember watching his footage from France and thinking, "This can’t be real." He’s not just tall; he moves like a guard, shoots from deep, and protects the rim like a seasoned veteran. In his last full season overseas, he averaged 21.6 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 3.2 blocks per game—numbers that are hard to ignore. But here’s where my personal skepticism creeps in. We’ve seen "unicorn" prospects before, and injuries have derailed more than a few promising careers. Wembanyama’s frame is still slender, and the NBA grind is relentless. If I were a GM, I’d be losing sleep over whether his body can hold up. Still, his ceiling is arguably higher than any prospect since LeBron James, and that’s saying something.

Then there’s Scoot Henderson, the G League Ignite guard who’s been turning heads with his explosive athleticism and maturity. At 6-foot-2, he’s built like a tank and plays with a fearlessness that reminds me of a young Derrick Rose. I had the chance to watch him live last year, and his first step is absolutely devastating. He’s projected to put up around 18 points and 7 assists per game in his rookie season, and his leadership qualities are off the charts. But let’s be real—his outside shot is still a work in progress. He shot just 27.5% from three in the G League, and in today’s NBA, that’s a red flag. Personally, I love his grit and think he could be the heart and soul of a franchise, but I’m not convinced he’s the best fit for every team at number one.

Of course, we can’t ignore the wild cards. Amen Thompson, for instance, brings a unique blend of size and playmaking at 6-foot-7, though his competition level in the Overtime Elite league raises questions. And then there’s Brandon Miller, the smooth-shooting forward out of Alabama who dropped 23.4 points per game in college. I’ve always had a soft spot for players who can stretch the floor, and Miller’s shooting mechanics are pure silk. But his defensive consistency? That’s another story.

The team holding the top pick will ultimately shape this decision, and as of now, it’s looking like the Detroit Pistons or Houston Rockets could be in the driver’s seat. Detroit, for example, already has Cade Cunningham, so adding Wembanyama would create a terrifying frontcourt duo. Houston, on the other hand, is in full rebuild mode and might prefer Henderson’s backcourt dominance. I’ve spoken to a few scouts who think the Pistons are leaning toward Wembanyama if they land the pick, but honestly, front offices are tighter than ever with information. One thing’s for sure: the team that wins the lottery will face a franchise-altering choice.

Looking back at past drafts, we’ve seen surprises—remember when Markelle Fultz went first over Jayson Tatum? I still shake my head at that one. This year, I’m putting my money on Wembanyama, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Henderson’s intangibles win over a desperate GM. The combine interviews and private workouts will be crucial, and as someone who’s seen prospects rise and fall based on a single workout, I know anything can happen.

In the end, the Monday lottery announcement set this entire process in motion, and over the next few weeks, we’ll see rumors fly and stocks rise and fall. From my perspective, while Wembanyama seems like the safe bet, Henderson’s upside is too compelling to ignore. Whoever goes first, one thing is certain: the future of a franchise hangs in the balance, and I, for one, can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.