2016 NBA Finals Odds: Who Were the Favorites and Underdogs to Win?

As I look back at the 2016 NBA Finals, I can't help but marvel at how dramatically the odds shifted throughout that unforgettable series. Having followed basketball analytics for over a decade, I've rarely seen such a compelling underdog story unfold in real-time. The Golden State Warriors entered the championship round as overwhelming favorites, coming off their historic 73-9 regular season that broke the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls' legendary record. Sportsbooks had them at -220 to win the championship, meaning you'd need to bet $220 just to win $100 - those are the kind of odds you typically see when there's near-certainty about the outcome.

What fascinates me about analyzing historical odds isn't just the numbers themselves, but what they reveal about our collective psychology as sports fans. We tend to overweight recent performance and underestimate the heart of proven champions. The Cleveland Cavaliers, despite having LeBron James in his absolute prime, were sitting at +180 underdogs. I remember thinking at the time that these odds didn't fully account for Cleveland's desperation factor - this was their second straight Finals appearance against Golden State, and they carried the weight of Cleveland's 52-year championship drought across all major sports. Sometimes, motivation matters more than statistics, though the analytics community would probably disagree with me on that.

The connection to the UAAP expansion mentioned in our reference material might not seem immediately obvious, but it's there if you look closely. When the Philippine Sports Commission supports expanding into more Olympic disciplines, it's essentially betting on underdogs - giving opportunities to sports that don't typically get the spotlight. This mirrors what we see in championship odds; sometimes the conventional wisdom needs challenging. The Warriors represented the established, dominant force - much like basketball in the Philippines - while the Cavaliers embodied those emerging sports that need that extra support to break through.

I've always believed that understanding odds requires appreciating both quantitative factors and narrative elements. The Warriors had Stephen Curry coming off his unanimous MVP season, they'd set the record for most three-pointers in a season, and they'd just overcome a 3-1 deficit against Oklahoma City in the Western Conference Finals. Meanwhile, Cleveland had struggled with chemistry issues throughout the season, replaced their head coach mid-year, and faced questions about whether Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love could perform at championship level after previous playoff disappointments. The numbers favored Golden State, but the human elements favored Cleveland in ways that statistics couldn't capture.

Looking at the series progression reveals how quickly perceptions can change. When Golden State took a 3-1 lead, their championship probability skyrocketed to over 90% according to most analytics models. I recall talking to fellow analysts who were already writing Cleveland's obituary. What happened next became the greatest comeback in NBA Finals history, with LeBron James delivering on his promise to bring a championship to Cleveland. The Cavaliers won three straight games, including two at Oracle Arena where the Warriors had lost only three times all season. The final Game 7 saw Kyrie Irving hit what might be the most clutch three-pointer in Finals history over Stephen Curry with 53 seconds remaining.

The betting markets went absolutely crazy throughout this series. I remember monitoring the line movements and seeing Cleveland's odds improve to +650 after falling behind 3-1 - meaning a $100 bet would net you $650 if they completed the impossible comeback. Those who believed in LeBron's greatness were handsomely rewarded. This volatility reminds me of how the PSC's support for UAAP expansion creates opportunities for unexpected breakthroughs in less prominent sports. Sometimes, the most rewarding bets are on the long shots that everyone else has counted out.

What many casual observers don't realize is how much injury concerns influenced the initial odds. Andrew Bogut's knee injury in Game 5 and Draymond Green's suspension for Game 6 created cascading effects that oddsmakers couldn't have predicted. This is where my experience in sports analytics really shapes my perspective - the best odds calculations account for both the known variables and the potential chaos factors. Golden State's small-ball death lineup lost its rim protection without Bogut, and Green's absence in Game 6 disrupted their defensive chemistry at the worst possible moment.

Reflecting on this several years later, I'm struck by how the 2016 Finals changed how we calculate championship odds. Analytics models now incorporate more psychological factors, accounting for things like desperation motivation, championship experience, and the unique pressure of elimination games. The Cavaliers had been here before, having lost to Golden State in the 2015 Finals, and that experience mattered far more than any statistical model recognized at the time. LeBron James specifically understood what it took to win on that stage, having already won two championships in Miami.

The financial implications were staggering too. I spoke with several professional bettors who reported that the 2016 Finals created some of the largest swings they'd ever seen. One Vegas bookmaker told me they lost seven figures on Cleveland's championship because the public money had heavily favored Golden State throughout the series. When underdogs win at that level, it creates shockwaves through the entire sports betting ecosystem. This connects back to why supporting underdog programs matters - whether we're talking about the UAAP expanding into new Olympic sports or unlikely championship contenders, creating opportunities for unexpected success stories benefits everyone in the ecosystem.

My personal takeaway from analyzing the 2016 Finals odds is that we should never underestimate heart, experience, and motivation. The numbers favored Golden State throughout, but Cleveland had intangible advantages that ultimately proved decisive. LeBron James delivered one of the greatest individual performances in NBA history, averaging 29.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 2.6 steals, and 2.3 blocks per game while leading both teams in all five major statistical categories - something never done before in any playoff series. Sometimes, greatness transcends the numbers, and that's what makes sports so compelling to analyze years later. The 2016 Cavaliers taught us that underdog stories aren't just feel-good narratives - they're reminders that conventional wisdom exists to be challenged, whether in sports championships or in supporting emerging athletic programs.