Can the Cal State Northridge Matadors Men's Basketball Team Make a Run This Season?

As I sit down to look at the upcoming college basketball season, one question keeps popping up for fans on the West Coast: Can the Cal State Northridge Matadors men's basketball team make a run this season? It’s a query that blends hope with a heavy dose of skepticism, given the program's history. But every new season is a blank slate, and this year, there’s a different kind of buzz around the Matadors that feels more tangible. To understand their potential, we sometimes have to look beyond the collegiate court and into the mindset of professional teams facing must-win scenarios. Interestingly, a recent comment from the professional basketball world struck a chord with me. San Miguel Beermen coach Leo Austria, analyzing his team's crucial performance, said they played with a "sense of urgency," emphasizing they "didn’t want to go down 0-3" before a pivotal overseas game. That phrase, "sense of urgency," isn’t just coach-speak; it’s the absolute cornerstone of any team hoping to defy expectations and make a run. For CSUN, cultivating and sustaining that urgency from November through March is the single biggest factor that will determine their fate.

Let’s be honest, the Matadors haven’t exactly been a powerhouse in the Big West Conference lately. Last season, they finished with a conference record of 7-13, placing them 8th out of 11 teams. Their overall record was a disappointing 12-20. You don’t make a "run" with those numbers as a foundation. But here’s where the Austria analogy fits. A team can look at a daunting schedule or a history of losses and succumb to it, or they can use it to fuel a collective urgency. I’ve seen it happen before—a team returns several key players, adds a couple of impactful transfers, and suddenly, the practices have a different intensity. The chatter I’m hearing suggests CSUN might be in that category. They return their leading scorer, senior guard Atin Wright, who averaged a solid 17.2 points per game. More importantly, they bring back sophomore forward Fidelis Okereke, who showed flashes of defensive brilliance with nearly a block per game. Continuity matters, but only if it’s paired with a renewed purpose. The "0-3" start Coach Austria feared is a mentality CSUN must avoid at all costs. In their non-conference schedule, which includes games against power-conference opponents, they can’t afford to let early losses snowball. A sense of urgency means treating a tough November game with the same focus as a Big West tournament quarterfinal. It’s about stealing a game they aren’t supposed to win early, just to prove to themselves they can.

Now, making a "run" can mean different things. For some programs, it’s an NCAA Tournament bid. For CSUN, given the recent trajectory, a run might realistically look like a top-four finish in the conference and a legitimate threat to win the Big West tournament in Las Vegas. Is that possible? Absolutely. The Big West is often wide open. Last year, the gap between the 4th and 8th seeds was just two games. With a few bounces going their way, CSUN could have been in that mix. The key, in my view, will be their defense and rebounding. Last season, they allowed opponents to shoot over 46% from the field and were consistently out-rebounded. You simply cannot win consistently with those metrics. The urgency has to manifest on the defensive end every single possession. It’s the less glamorous side of the ball, but it’s what builds the identity of overachieving teams. I’m looking at players like Okereke and incoming transfers to set a physical, relentless tone. If they can improve their defensive efficiency by even 5-7%, which is roughly 4-6 fewer points allowed per game, that turns several of last year’s close losses into wins.

Offensively, it’s about more than just Atin Wright. He’s a fantastic talent, but he needs a consistent secondary scorer to emerge. The ball movement was stagnant at times last year, resulting in a low assist rate. They averaged only 11.5 assists per game, which ranked near the bottom nationally. Modern basketball, even at the mid-major level, is about player and ball movement. Developing a more fluid, unselfish system will be crucial for Coach Trent Johnson and his staff. I’d like to see them push the pace more often; they have the athletes to run. Creating easier baskets in transition would take pressure off a half-court offense that can struggle. Furthermore, three-point shooting has to improve. They shot a paltry 31.8% from deep last season. In today’s game, that’s a recipe for a clogged paint and offensive frustration. Finding a couple of reliable shooters, whether from the returning roster or the new faces, is non-negotiable.

So, circling back to the original question: Can they make a run? My answer is a cautious yes, but with significant caveats. The raw materials are there—a star guard, experienced returners, and the inherent unpredictability of their conference. However, materials alone don’t build anything. It requires that intangible, all-encompassing sense of urgency that Coach Austria pinpointed. It’s a daily choice. It’s in the film study, the extra sprints, the defensive rotations in practice, and the belief that every game is a season-defining moment. I’ve followed this program for years, and what often separates their promising seasons from the disappointing ones is precisely that mentality. They can’t afford to wait until February to "turn it on." The run starts now, in the preseason, with the understanding that every drill, every scrimmage, is part of building something that can last into March. If they embrace that, a 7-13 conference record can flip to 11-9 or 12-8. And in the Big West, that’s more than enough to be a dangerous team come tournament time. I’m not predicting a conference championship, but I am predicting a team that will be far more competitive and watchable, a team that plays with a purpose we haven’t seen in a while. And in college basketball, a team with a clear, urgent purpose is always capable of making a run.